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Pipeline decision originally due tomorrow, but ..
TMX TO BE PUNTED UNTIL AFTER ELECTION ?
Trudeau Gov't insiders whisper to Bourque it would 'make sense' to punt a decision until after the fall election. Here's their developing strategy, shared on condition of anonymity: First, Libs currently hold just 3 seats in Alberta and expect to lose all three in the Kenney-led province. It's their 'best case scenario', given all three seats were won 4 years ago at the height of Justin's popularity. Which was a far cry from what it is now. If so, say goodbye to lesser-mortal cabmin Sohi, Justice committee annoyance Boissonault, and the ever-curious Kent Hehr. Second, on the other hand, Libs hold 17 seats in BC and need all of them if they want to retain government. Which they do. As one PMO punkeydoodler surmised, without winning government, no more damn-the-carbon-footprint weekend jet-set surfing junkets to Tofino for Justin. Makes sense regardless where you stand on climate change. So, does Trudeau ok a pro-Alberta/Kenney pipeline at the expense of seat-rich BC ? Hard to imagine, which supports the supposition that the final decision will be deferred until after the October election. And is that a bad thing for the Kenney Gov't and his federal cousins in Ottawa ? Well, that's the thing. Calgary insiders tell Bourque that Kenney's blanket ad blitz supporting a TMX decision is just smoke and mirrors, pure hocus-pocus. The reasoning elucidated as follows. In short, if Trudeau stiffs Alberta in his TMX decision, it only empowers Team Scheer and his provincial acolytes. Complicated ? Let's dummy it down for you. If Justin OKs the TMX, he pisses off BC and gains nothing in Alberta. If he denies TMX, he treads water in BC, but empowers his Conservative opponents. If he delays a decision until after the election, he neutralizes Alberta and sustains his BC support. Not quite a 'checkmate', but at least a 'check'. That's the smart play, but stupid decisions are not elusive to this government. Stay tuned .. developing.

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